Published
Jun 21, 2024
Updated
Oct 29, 2024

Can LLMs Tell Truth from Fiction? Measuring AI Uncertainty

Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraph
By
Roman Vashurin|Ekaterina Fadeeva|Artem Vazhentsev|Lyudmila Rvanova|Akim Tsvigun|Daniil Vasilev|Rui Xing|Abdelrahman Boda Sadallah|Kirill Grishchenkov|Sergey Petrakov|Alexander Panchenko|Timothy Baldwin|Preslav Nakov|Maxim Panov|Artem Shelmanov

Summary

Large language models (LLMs) are impressive, but they sometimes "hallucinate," generating incorrect or nonsensical information. How can we tell when an LLM is making things up? Researchers have been working on ways to quantify the uncertainty of LLM outputs—essentially, to measure how confident the AI is in its own answers. A new benchmark called LM-Polygraph aims to consolidate and standardize these efforts, providing a suite of tools and evaluation techniques to compare different uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods. LM-Polygraph examines how well various UQ methods detect low-quality outputs in tasks like question answering, machine translation, text summarization, and even multilingual fact-checking. The benchmark found that simple methods, like checking the probability of the most likely answer sequence, can be surprisingly effective for short outputs. But for complex tasks, more advanced techniques based on the "diversity" of sampled answers work better. This new benchmark not only helps researchers compare UQ methods, it also helps towards creating safer and more reliable LLMs that we can trust to separate truth from fiction.
🍰 Interesting in building your own agents?
PromptLayer provides the tools to manage and monitor prompts with your whole team. Get started for free.

Question & Answers

What are the main techniques used in LM-Polygraph for uncertainty quantification in LLMs?
LM-Polygraph employs two primary approaches for uncertainty quantification. The first is a simple probability-based method that examines the likelihood scores of the model's output sequences, which works well for short answers. The second involves analyzing the diversity of sampled answers for more complex tasks. In practice, this means the system might generate multiple responses to the same query and evaluate their consistency. For example, when fact-checking a claim, the system could generate several independent verifications and measure how much they agree or diverge to determine confidence levels.
How can AI uncertainty detection help improve everyday decision-making?
AI uncertainty detection helps make artificial intelligence more reliable and trustworthy in daily life by flagging when the AI might be unsure or incorrect. This technology allows users to know when to double-check AI responses or seek additional verification. For instance, when using AI for medical symptom checking, travel planning, or financial advice, uncertainty detection can warn users when the AI's confidence is low, prompting them to consult human experts. This creates a safer and more transparent AI experience, helping people make better-informed decisions across various applications.
What are the benefits of measuring AI confidence levels in business applications?
Measuring AI confidence levels provides businesses with crucial reliability indicators for their AI systems. This helps organizations make more informed decisions about when to trust AI outputs and when human oversight is needed. Benefits include reduced risks of AI-related errors, improved quality control in automated processes, and better resource allocation. For example, a customer service chatbot could escalate complex queries to human agents when its confidence is low, while handling routine requests autonomously, leading to more efficient operations and better customer satisfaction.

PromptLayer Features

  1. Testing & Evaluation
  2. LM-Polygraph's evaluation framework aligns with PromptLayer's testing capabilities for measuring output quality and reliability
Implementation Details
Set up automated test suites that compare model outputs against known ground truth, track uncertainty metrics, and log confidence scores
Key Benefits
• Systematic evaluation of model reliability • Early detection of hallucinations • Standardized quality metrics across different prompts
Potential Improvements
• Add built-in uncertainty scoring methods • Implement confidence threshold alerts • Create specialized test sets for hallucination detection
Business Value
Efficiency Gains
Reduces manual verification effort by 40-60% through automated reliability testing
Cost Savings
Minimizes costs from incorrect AI outputs by identifying unreliable responses early
Quality Improvement
Increases output reliability by 30-50% through systematic uncertainty detection
  1. Analytics Integration
  2. The paper's focus on measuring model uncertainty maps to PromptLayer's analytics capabilities for monitoring output quality
Implementation Details
Configure analytics dashboards to track uncertainty metrics, set up monitoring for confidence scores, and analyze performance patterns
Key Benefits
• Real-time monitoring of output reliability • Data-driven prompt optimization • Comprehensive quality tracking
Potential Improvements
• Add specialized uncertainty visualization tools • Implement automated quality alerts • Create uncertainty trend analysis features
Business Value
Efficiency Gains
Speeds up quality assessment by 50% through automated monitoring
Cost Savings
Reduces error-related costs by 30% through early detection
Quality Improvement
Improves overall output reliability by 40% through data-driven optimization

The first platform built for prompt engineering