Published
Sep 22, 2024
Updated
Sep 22, 2024

Can AI Predict Heart Attacks? A Look at the Latest Research

Can Large Language Models Logically Predict Myocardial Infarction? Evaluation based on UK Biobank Cohort
By
Yuxing Zhi|Yuan Guo|Kai Yuan|Hesong Wang|Heng Xu|Haina Yao|Albert C Yang|Guangrui Huang|Yuping Duan

Summary

Imagine having a casual conversation with your computer, mentioning a few health details, and it accurately predicts your risk of a heart attack. While this sounds like science fiction, researchers are actively exploring the potential of large language models (LLMs), like the technology behind ChatGPT, to do just that. A recent study, using data from the extensive UK Biobank, put LLMs like ChatGPT and GPT-4 to the test, analyzing their ability to predict myocardial infarction (MI), commonly known as a heart attack. The results? While promising, there's still a long way to go. The study revealed that these powerful AI models struggled to achieve the accuracy needed for reliable clinical use. Although GPT-4 showed the best performance, its accuracy was still below the desired threshold. One surprising finding was that feeding the LLM information in a step-by-step, logical way (a technique called "Chain of Thought" prompting) actually *reduced* the accuracy of the predictions. This suggests that these models don’t reason like human doctors, who build a diagnosis piece by piece. Instead, they seem to perform better when given all the information upfront. So, where does this leave the dream of AI-powered heart attack prediction? While current LLMs aren’t ready to replace doctors, the research points to some critical next steps. Future medical AI will likely need a deep understanding of both language and quantitative medical data, combined with the ability to reason logically. This research reminds us that even the most sophisticated AI needs careful development and rigorous testing before it can be trusted with our health.
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Question & Answers

What is 'Chain of Thought' prompting, and why did it unexpectedly reduce prediction accuracy in this study?
Chain of Thought prompting is a technique where AI models are fed information in a sequential, logical manner to mimic human reasoning processes. In this study, contrary to expectations, this approach actually decreased the accuracy of heart attack predictions compared to providing all information at once. This reveals a fundamental difference between how LLMs and human doctors process medical information. While doctors build diagnoses step-by-step, these AI models appear to perform better with holistic data presentation. This finding suggests that current LLMs don't truly replicate human medical reasoning patterns, despite their sophisticated language capabilities.
How close are we to using AI for everyday health predictions?
While AI shows promising potential in healthcare, we're still in the early stages of reliable AI-based health predictions. Current research shows that even advanced models like GPT-4 haven't reached the accuracy levels required for clinical use in predicting serious conditions like heart attacks. However, AI is already being used successfully in less critical healthcare applications, such as analyzing medical images or identifying patterns in patient data. The technology continues to evolve, and future systems will likely combine language understanding with medical expertise for more accurate health predictions in everyday scenarios.
What are the potential benefits of AI in preventive healthcare?
AI in preventive healthcare offers several promising advantages. It could help identify health risks before they become serious by analyzing patterns in patient data that humans might miss. The technology could make health monitoring more accessible and convenient, allowing people to get preliminary health insights without visiting a doctor. AI could also help healthcare providers prioritize patients based on risk levels, leading to more efficient resource allocation. This could result in earlier interventions, reduced healthcare costs, and better overall health outcomes for populations.

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  2. The study's comparison of different prompting strategies (standard vs Chain of Thought) aligns directly with systematic prompt testing needs
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  1. Version Control
  2. The unexpected finding about Chain of Thought performance highlights the need to track and compare different prompt versions
Implementation Details
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• Traceable prompt evolution history • Reproducible research results • Easy regression testing
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Cost Savings
Minimized rework through version tracking
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Better accountability and audit trail

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